LE CHOIX D’UN RÉGIME DE CHANGE POUR L’ALGÉRIE : UNE APPROCHE EN LOGIT BINAIRE

Abstract

Empirical works, dealing with the issue of choosing an appropriate exchange rate regime, are generally based on the analysis of logit models of a panel of countries. This type of model, proved an efficient tool to characterize the relationship between the typology of exchange rate regimes and their determinants. This investigative work is part of a similar methodological line. It applies to determine the most appropriate exchange rate regime for the Algerian economy, and explores its various potential determinants. The analysis of the logit model suggests, on the time interval that covers the sample, two sub-periods, which correspond to different exchange rate regimes. The reliability of the established results is analyzed through investigation using multiple regressions estimated for the two periods that correspond to the two exchange rate regimes that Algeria would have adopted. In summary, the results of this work suggest that the fixed exchange rate regime would be most appropriate to the period (1970-2010).