Monnaie unique de la CEDEAO La norme budgétaire

Abstract

To facilitate the introduction of the future single currency in ECOWAS, one of the fiscal convergence criteria proposed, limits the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP. This paper uses a non-linear panel data model to investigate whether this threshold is pro-growth. To do this, the paper seeks to determine the fiscal deficit threshold not to exceed so that fiscal policy has a positive effect on economic growth. In addition, the paper seeks to identify the ECOWAS countries that can currently adopt the future single currency on the basis of fiscal discipline. The analysis carried out over the period 2007-2016 indicates the existence of a fiscal deficit threshold estimated at 4.74% of GDP that should not be exceeded in order for fiscal policy to have a positive impact on economic growth. When a country has a fiscal deficit above this threshold, fiscal policy has no effect on economic growth. Based on these results, it appears that the proposed fiscal norm is economic progrowth. Nevertheless, in relation to the estimated threshold, there is room for manœuvre that countries can use in managing their fiscal policy to support economic growth. The analysis also reveals that only four countries in ECOWAS are on the track to respect in the future, the proposed fiscal criterion and therefore are taking an important step toward the adoption of the future currency. These countries are Nigeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Guinea. The other countries in the region will have to make significant fiscal adjustments if they want to adopt the future single currency.