EVOLUTION OF ALGERIA GAS EXPORTS TO EUROPE ON HORIZON 2030

Abstract

Being the third largest supplier of gas in Europe, Algeria is undergoing strong competition in this market, following the liberalization introduced since 1998. Moreover, the Europe natural gas dependence is increasing and could approach to 85% in 2030.
However, the Algerian gas exports face a serious challenge, which is the continuous increase in local consumption. According to the latest report of the CREG, consumption will range between 42 to 55.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) from 2019.
The combination of strong, medium and low assumptions of the variables selected for the simultaneous equations model developed in this paper, shows that Algeria can export 33,6 to 80,1 bcm of gas to Europe, on which the Algeria gas share will situate between 6,8 to 14,9%.