FORECASTING ALGERIA’S NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION USING A BASIC AND GENERALIZED HUBBERT MODEL

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate a long-term physical availability of natural gas in Algeria using the peak production approach. This leads to estimate two models. The first is the basic Hubbert model, while, the second is second is the Generalized Hubbert model, which accounted for disruptions in gas production by using a series of Hubbert curves in combination with a polynomial smoothing function to improve the first model. Our findings show that is more reliable to present the peak as a short plateau from 2005 to 2008, with respective volume of 107.5 to 109.5 Billion cubic meter (bcm). About 2000 bcm will be produced in the upcoming years, with 90% depletion by 2035. The results of forecasts’ accuracy indicate that the second model provide a high accuracy forecast.